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P**N
Get Ready for the Future While You Are Still Human
The Singularity is Near is one of the most audacious books I have ever read outside of religious texts. I mean audacious in a positive manner, in terms of the scope of material covered, the command of technical detail and inspired vision of the future. For a relative small price to pay, the reader is invited on a mind-blowing journey of what is possible in the near future, due to the relentless and overpowering reach and march of technology, and an extrapolation of where that journey is taking us.Glimpses of that extrapolation can be seen even now.Bottomline, Kurzweil explains in fairly understandable detail where the exponential growth in computer processing, microelectronic and medical advancements are taking us and the book is as much a warning for humans to get ready for the future as an inspired vision. By 2045 Kurzweil predicts the Singularity will occur; that is, humans will transcend biology, i.e. we will no longer be fully human but will be "part man/woman and part machine" or cyborg in other words. The implications are not grasped by many Kurzweil implies but he attempts to prove by extrapolation from Moore's Law and the Turing Test how that might occur. Kurzweil contends that once the Singularity is achieved, humanity will be off to the races in terms of growth potential since human intelligence will be digitized and can be uploaded, downloaded, and interchanged much like computers operate today and the human body will be increasingly machine-like as organs will become passe'.The book is an intellectual feast whether one agrees with Kurzweil or not. There are great discussions as to when computers will become indistinguishable versus humans (Turing Test), a calculation of the computing power of a rock (yes, you read correctly) and a romp in the calculation of the likely number of intelligent civilizations in the universe (Kurzweil thinks there is only one and it happens to be us) using the Drake Equation where he explains his assumptions in each variable. The latter exposition is the single best discussion I have ever read anywhere (Sagan et al)on the issue of intelligent life potential in the universe. If nothing else, the book is dynamite to any serious reader who likes to ponder the future and technological change.The downside for many readers will be Kurzweil's atheistic approach which views humanity as souless organisms and an unrealistic view that the bulk of current humanity could ever reach the potential he describes. As a Christian I don't take offense at Kurzweil's thesis, however, because the Bible argues that humanity only reaches full potential in Christ, otherwise humanistic approaches devolve into evil whether abetted by technology or not. Kurzweil is only focusing on the humanistic approach and he doesn't believe (his opinion) that the trends he is discussing will progress toward evil or cause ever more chaos in the world. That perhaps is a very tall stretch when considering the shape of our world today. Notwithstanding, I can accept Kurzweil's thesis without offense because it is one man's opinion versus that of many others. I can thank him, though, that his projections are as much a warning as to where technology can be taking us and the scientific community is not preparing the rest of us very well on that subject.Objectively, one should appreciate the brilliance of Kurzweil, his command of technical issues and his sheer attempt at depicting such a theme in the first place. Truly audacious.
R**T
An Absolute Gem of a Book
Ray Kurzweil is a national treasure, a man who thinks at the level of Einstein but only 50 years later. There are a number of people like Kurzweil walking around on the planet. You have to search for them. When you find them, try to learn everything you can from them. They will help you move exponentially to the next level. He is a solitary thinker, operating on the outer limits of human knowledge, and then some.I have read his other books, and in many ways, this book is the sequel to "The Age of Spiritual Machines". What Kurzweil is writing about in this book is his belief that we are moving towards s UNION if you will, of human intelligence and machines or objects that will have equal and eventually superior intelligence. Is this the goal of the people who spend their lives working in Artificial Intelligence, probably?The difference is that Kurzweil knows so much more than his fellow thinkers, and more importantly for us, he has the capacity to convey it to those of us who are not full-time players in his arena. This quality of information conveyance is a vastly underappreciated skill. In my work investing billions of dollars in stock investments, I have access to just about anybody I want, because I have the capacity to write a check. You have no idea how many actual geniuses I deal with who CAN'T speak, let alone write the English language.Kurzweil is different. He can get these concepts across to us in an interesting language spiced with stories that we can all understand. He does not visibly suffer from the ego needs of most geniuses. He is comfortable in his own skin, and that feeling is conveyed to us also.Due to his position in the exalted world of the super Mensa types, Kurzweil can also access the top minds of who's doing what in the world today. Men who run Fortune 100 companies are more than willing to share the knowledge of their research departments with this famous thinker.At the upper levels of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the Defense Department are some of the smartest people on the planet working on Artificial Intelligence, and edge-of-knowledge sophisticated computer applications. Kurzweil is in a position to interact with all of them, and this accounts for why much of what he writes about appears nowhere else.He also brings something else to the table. He is a very successful inventor and entrepreneur who is now independently wealthy. He knows what works in what environment, and what doesn't. He knows when something is being brought to market too early, or way too late. In the book he states, "I realized that most inventions fail not because the R&D department can't get them to work, but because the timing is wrong. Inventing is a lot like surfing: you have to anticipate and catch the wave at just the right moment." I am an investor; I have never heard it said better.His concept of his "intuitive linear view of history" is absolutely fascinating, and compelling. He believes that the rate of change is accelerating. For years we have all heard the concept that the only constant is change. Kurzweil believes the calculus is changing. We have already entered a world where we are witnessing a dramatic change in the rate of acceleration of change.Just ten or so years ago, cell phones had minimal impact. The Internet was nowhere near the adaptive state it is in today, and universal information flow did not exist. There were no bloggers, traditional media dominated, and people were more easily lied to by politicians with impunity. Things are changing aren't they?Here's the bottom line on Kurzweil. Most of the time you read a book to take one major thought out of the document. Sometimes it's a single page; sometimes it's a single line. Occasionally, you find that rare book where there is something on every page that is outstanding, motivating, even framework changing. This is such a book, and therein lays its importance.There's one more reason to read a book like this. Do you remember when Ross Perot ran for President? One of the metaphors he used to refer to was a story of the carpenter he knew. The words were "Measure twice, cut once." This is an example of what I call the need to be mentored. There are people that can teach you things that if you spent 20 years studying the topic, you would never learn. The carpenters' of "Measure twice, cut once," is an example of that.When you read Kurzweil, you are eliminating the need to read hundreds to thousands of other books. There is knowledge on every page for you to absorb and ponder. Buy this book, and have an orgasm of the mind.Richard Stoyeck
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