Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder

This is my 3rd book from Nassim Taleb. I'm a huge fan of his writing style and the insights from all walks of life from mathematics to philosophy to health. The notions of volatility, fragile, Antifragile, ... Can be applied everywhere

The third book of Taleb's Incerto trilogy was published in November 2012 and is now available in paperback. His first two books, Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, sold so well that he was paid an advance of $4m for the final instalment.Antifragile is an interesting read both intellectually and personally. Taleb famously gives little away to journalists but in this book his personality shines out through his writing. So emotionally charged is the book, I thought it would be appropriate to review it by reference to the subjects contained that come in for the most vitriol from Taleb.1. BankersReaders familiar with Taleb's other writings will already know how he feels about bankers. Taleb's definition of antifragility (systems that get stronger under volatility, as opposed to fragile ones that break) stems from his work in banking. One criticism that is already gaining much ground elsewhere is the absence of "skin in the game" for traders gambling with their clients' money. But Taleb's dislike of bankers is not just an academic one. Personal insults abound, including a "suit" held to task for getting a porter to carry his bags to the gym.2. PoliticiansFragility is often seen at a relatively simple level, a glass being the obvious example, whereas antifragility is a property of complex systems - the human body, human populations or markets. Politicians come under fire on (at least!) two counts. First, they cause chaos by interfering with systems that they do not understand. In particular, interventions by politicians tend to favour eradication of error, which increases fragility and risk of collapse. Secondly, and more strongly, politicians frequently gain personal advantage at the cost of others by talking a good game that they do not practice in their own lives.3. EconomistsI don't think I need to explain why Taleb hates economists or give examples from the book. Instead I just want to mention Taleb's rather touching fondness for Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Despite Taleb naming the Stiglitz syndrome (predicting the future inconsistently and only taking credit for the ones that turn out to be correct) after him, Stiglitz does not come in for the same strength of insults dished out to other "fragilistas" and I am amused by my impression Taleb secretly quite likes him.4. Alternative MedicineTaleb has a disdain for all modern medicine, and a whole section of the book explains the wrongheadedness of risking a serious issue by using insufficiently tested medicine for a non-life-threatening condition. The terrible example of treating morning sickness with thalidomide makes this point well. But don't confuse Taleb's skepticism with a belief in alternative therapies - he "went postal" on receiving a letter of support from one such practitioner saying she understood how he felt.5. Orange JuiceTaleb's hatred for orange juice is an example of a wider disdain for the modern diet. He reveals his personal food rules, and very fascinating they are: no liquids that have not existed for at least one thousand years (i.e. wine, water and coffee only), no fruit not present in the ancient Mediterranean (no pineapples, pawpaws or other exotica) and observance of Greek Orthodox fasts for health rather than religious reasons. He considers oranges to be the equivalent of candy, as the modern variety have been intentionally bred for their sweetness.I found Antifragile to be thought provoking and very entertaining. It is full of contradictions and inconsistencies, but the sincere passion behind the main themes gives the book its charm. The most delicious irony is that according to Taleb's own criteria - a book is more likely to contain accurate useful ideas the longer it has been in existence - the reader made their first mistake in choosing to pick the book up.

In Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, Taleb predicted the financial crisis of 2008. But more than predicting that particular crisis he advanced the idea that Black Swans, which are large scale, unpredictable and irregular events of massive consequence, cannot be predicted and consequently forecasts and predictions by experts or anyone else are useless.This left me with a conundrum. Doesn't any activity in life whether it is marraige or business investment require a prediction?In Antifragile, Taleb addresses this issue. He proposes replacing prediction with classifying systems and things as Fragile, Robust of Antifragile. He argues that things can be fragile but the opposite of the fragile is not robust, which are simply things that would break with greater difficult than the fragile. It is the "antifragile" that benefit from shocks, and thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder and stressors.The fundamental idea of the book is that by grasping the mechanisms of antifragility we can build a systematic and broad guide to non predictive decision making under uncertainty in business, politics, medicine and life in general. It is far easier to figure out if something is fragile rather than predict the occurrence of an event that may harm it. The key is the emphasis on designing antifragility into the system. You cannot say with any reliability that a certain remote event is more likely than another but you can state with a lot more confidence that an object or structure is more fragile than another should a certain event happen.He then goes on to argue that by removing stressors from the system or minimsing volatility, fragility is being built into the system. He draws the parallel with weight training which, by increasing stress, creates a stronger body; or immunisation that by injecting small doses of nasty substances into the body, immunity is generated. The problem with artificially suppressing volatility or minimising risk is not just that the system tends to become extremely fragile; it is also that , at the same time , it masks exhibition of visible risks. So silent risks accumulate under the surface. Stability promoted by political and economic policy makers, intended to inhibit fluctuations, tend to have the opposite effect - they result in more massive blowups.Two central elements of modernity are naive interventionism and the unconditional belief in the idea of scientific prediction. He maintains that anything where there is naive intervention will have iatrogenics (harm caused by the healer). He qualifies this by saying he is not against intervention, but he warns against naive intervention and the lack of awareness of the harm done by it. For example intervening to limit size (of companies, airports, sources of pollution) concentration and speed are beneficial in reducing Black Swan risks. Interventionism in the form of "look what I did for you" should be replaced by inaction.Taleb is allergic to theories which are not founded on practice and he is venomous about universities and the majority of academic life. He sees academic theory as reflecting the illusion that you know exactly where you are going and assuming today what your preferences will be tomorrow. Additionallly never ask people what they want to go, or where they they think they should go. Instead create options for yourself and for others. The important difference between theory and practice lies precisely in the detection of the sequence of events and retaining the sequence in memory. Life is lived forward but remembered backwards.The ability to switch a course of action is an option to change. Options are what allows you to benefit from the positive side of uncertainty without the corresponding serious harm from the negative side.I think you can see I found the key messages of the book stimulating. But the presentation is often dense and rambling. He displays his fascination with in classic Greek and Roman philosophies beyond my reach and luckily my kindle has a dictionary because frequently vocabulary unfamiliar to me is used! He repeats his points and there is a lack of structure but the advantage is he provides rich examples and illustrations.Not an easy book but well worth the effort.

Nem sempre eu concordei com o que Taleb escreveu, mas é impossível ler o livro e afirmar que não há qualquer ideia ou provocação que não te fez pensar. Apesar de ser um pouco prolixo e repetitivo por momentos, o livro é agradável e vale muito para refletir sobre nossos modelos mentais. Recomendo!

This book is about understanding the importance of randomness and having positions and making decisions where the risk is uncorrelated. It is very well written and is also a great history lesson. It can be slightly intense at times as the content is dense and heavy, but the stories used to support his views are very well narrated. Take actions and options that offer an unlimited and positive asymmetrical payout for positive externalities, but reduce your downside with unfavorable outcomes. A book on the philosophy of how to get stronger from randomness and volatility. One of the most useful books I have read thus far in my life.

Probably the book that influenced my thinking the most. Incredibly concrete, engaging, and useful.It should be required reading in high school, in my opinion.

À mon avis, c'est le meilleur livre de Taleb.

Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a thought-provoking and insightful book that challenges readers to rethink their assumptions about risk, uncertainty, and resilience. Taleb is a renowned thinker and writer, and his ideas have had a significant impact on fields as diverse as finance, economics, and philosophy.The concept of antifragility, as introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder", describes systems or entities that not only withstand stress, shocks, and uncertainty, but actually thrive and improve as a result. Antifragility is the opposite of fragility, where a system or entity is vulnerable to damage or collapse under stress, shocks, and uncertainty.Antifragile systems are characterized by their ability to adapt and learn from mistakes, to use variability and randomness to their advantage, and to improve through exposure to stressors. These systems are not only resilient, but they actively seek out and benefit from disruption and disorder.Taleb argues that antifragility is an essential characteristic for survival and success in complex and unpredictable environments. He identifies a range of antifragile systems, from biological organisms that improve through exposure to stressors, to businesses that thrive in volatile markets, to cultures and social systems that evolve through trial and error.In practical terms, the concept of antifragility has important implications for individuals, organizations, and societies. It suggests that instead of trying to eliminate risk and uncertainty, we should focus on building systems that can adapt and benefit from them. This might mean embracing experimentation and failure, seeking out diverse perspectives and approaches, and building redundancy and flexibility into our systems.Overall, the concept of antifragility challenges us to think differently about how we approach risk, uncertainty, and change. It offers a new perspective on resilience and adaptability, and suggests that there are opportunities for growth and improvement even in the most challenging and unpredictable situations.Overall, the book is an eye opener to think about risk and how to adjust to unpredictable environment.