A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics: A Neuroscientist on How to Make Sense of a Complex World

This is an outstanding book on critical thinking and applying statistics to everyday life. I think this should be required reading for high school students. It would be interesting if our culture was more encouraging of critical thinking, rather than believing everything we read or hear in the news or social media.

In this age of when the only news that many high school students get is from the Internet, every student should read “A Field Guide to Lies and Statistics. But then perhaps everyone should read it because the world is full of fake news. But as author Daniel Levitin points out, it is not confined to just the Internet. It is everywhere. While currently it is very pervasive, the improper use of statistics and numbers has always been a problem, usually unintentional in the reputable news media but intentional in the yellow press and in advertising.The book may be a hard read for high school students and for many readers, particularly in its discussion of statistics and probabilities which are on a college level. But the discussion at the college level is necessary in order to validate the author’s message.While I think it is an outstanding book, I pondered over whether or not to give it a 5 star or a 4 star rating. Because it has some shortcomings, I chose to give it a 4 stars. My principle reason is the organization of the book. In the back of the book is a section which displays all the sources for the statements made in the book. In other words, a compendium of end notes. The problem, and it is a serious problem, is that the text of the book does not reference the end notes.This is important to those like myself, who are serious about checking the sources of the statements and data mentioned in the text. I never accept an author’s statements of fact unless I can verity the source. An example is the statement in “A Field Guide” is the statement on page 17 that “The average annual temperature in Death Valley is a comfortable 77 degrees... but that the range can kill you , with temperatures ranging from 15 degrees to 134 degrees on record.” The end note gives as its reference Wikipedia. Wikipedia is not a primary source and thus not the best source. In fact, Wikipedia does not say that. It says that the mean average temperature is 77 degrees and that was not for Death Valley as a whole but at a particular location. Moreover, the extremes of 134 degrees and 15 degrees happened in 1913 and accuracy of the 134 degree reading has been challenged. (Court, 1949: How hot is Death Valley? Geographical Review, 39, pp. 214-220). Professor Court makes a compelling case that the 134 degrees reading was erroneous and when the historical data for Death Valley is examined, the 134 degrees is not plausible.Perhaps this is minutia because all that the author is trying to establish is that a number provided by a person does not necessarily represent the actual conditions. But the author should have been more careful in picking the example and setting forth its source, partiuclarly given the subject matter of the book.The author states that “If something appears in Nature, the Lancet, or Cell, for example, you can be sure that it went through vigorous peer review.” (P. 144) Ergo it can be trusted. Perhaps but several articles in the Economist magazine challenge this. “How science goes wrong.” (Oct 21st 2013); “What’s wrong with Science”, challenging Nature and Cell (Dec 16th 2013). My advice is never trust any publication even if it is supposedly peer reviewed, without thoroughly checking it out. Peer review often is shoddy and sporadic and it isn’t as reliable as it is cracked up to be.The author praises Consumer Reports as a reliable source. Not so. After 55 years as a subscriber, I cancelled my subscription because I found it very unreliable. CR’s processes are subjective to a fault. Its ratings often depend on personal tastes by the person or people doing the testing. For example, a tester gives a product a poor rating because in his or her opinion the product has a cheap finish but others might prefer the finish because it is durable and to them nice looking. Moreover, when testing a product, in most cases only one sample of the product is tested. It may the one bad sample in a thousand. I can’t count the times I bought a product that was top rated by CR which turned out to be a lemon. Nor the times I purchased a product that had an average rating that turned out to be a gem. I bought an SUV 15 years ago that CR was critical of and had also given it a low reliability rating. But I tested 16 other more highly rated SUVs and did not find any of them that met my needs better than the SUV I bought. It is the best car I have ever owned and I have had only routine maintenance problems. We have had Mercedes and Cadillacs but my wife thinks this SUV has the best ride of any car we have ever owned or tested. And we got it for far less than its higher rated rivals.Consumers Reports reliability ratings are not scientific. The annual questionnaire is subjective and we never know if the sampling is representative of the owners participating. If one goes on line and reads he product reviews by the public, public opinion of the product is almost always at variance with the ratings given to products by CR. That is because the public isn’t just testing one sample but many samples and the public is finding the faults. CR does not have the resources to test more than one sample of a product and since CR needs to publish its results quickly before the manufacturer changes models, it cannot test a product long enough to find out how reliable the product is.In conclusion, despite its few faults, the book is outstanding. I recommend as a read for everyone.

Required reading for my students from now on.

I just finished this book. Although I think the book provided good factual content it was extremely boring and repetitive. The content provided could have been delivered in about half the number of pages. For anyone who has ever read other publications on critical thinking , there is nothing at all new here.

The need to simplify your personal life as well as your business, is not new. Every second year I have brought to readers’ attention another book on the subject, so here is my biennial contribution.What makes this book valuable is that it focuses directly on sustainable economic growth. The authors have identified two types of growth that flow from the exercise of simplification: proposition-simplification and price-simplification. These two methods of growing the company are fundamentally different and the decision to pursue one form of simplification over another must be made on reliable grounds.The decision must take cognizance of the culture of the company and its appetite and ability to pursue one type of simplification over the other. Further, the nature of both the company’s offering and the nature of the market will affect the decision-making process.I will describe how the two types of simplification unfold through the descriptions of some of the well-known businesses used in the book as examples.Price simplificationThe sole objective of price-simplification is to slash the costs of the product or service to the consumer.Henry Ford achieved price-simplification by reducing the variety of cars his company initially offered down to one, and in only one colour –black. The very design of the car was aimed at giving people what they needed and nothing more – a way to move faster than on horseback. Ford worked constantly on redesigning his factories so that more cars could be produced ever more cheaply. The company’s success was directly correlated to the constantly dropping selling price.IKEA, the mass retailer of affordable, attractive furniture, redesigned their products so that they could be flat-packed, saving the company transport and storage costs. This price-simplification model also involved co-opting customers into the sales process to further reduce costs. Not only are there no salespeople for you to discuss your decorating needs with, you select the furniture yourself, but you even take it home yourself in a flat-pack. Then, you assemble the furniture from their remarkably clear instructions.McDonald’s reduced the price of their burgers by reducing variety, and automating processes wherever possible. They also speeded up the delivery of the food, so allowing for a faster flow-through of customers, and eliminated the cost of waiters. Customers essentially serve themselves.Honda entered the American market by reducing the power of the motor-cycles they offered, and scaling down their offering to the larger segment of small motor-cycle users. Honda also lowered their costs of labour, their most expensive component, through efficiencies of production and management.Proposition-SimplificationProposition-simplification differs from price-simplification with its focus on making the product or service a joy to use. The price is not a factor and many who are proposition-simplifiers are more expensive than their competitors. This category benefits from people’s willingness to pay more, if that is what it takes to own something that is easier to use, or more useful or more aesthetically pleasing.Apple Macintosh effectively created the high-end customer segment by manufacturing products that were more intuitive for the user, more user-friendly and more beautiful.Uber has made the experience of using a taxi quicker through the software that hails the drivers closest to you. The newer cars required for use by Uber drivers are expected to be more reliable, comfortable, and the whole experience is often cheaper than conventional taxis. This combination of the speed of getting a ride and the convenience of not having to pay cash, are among many features that have made Uber hugely successful, and an extremely valuable company.The computer scientists at Xerox PARC invented the modern PC, the mouse and much, much more. However, they failed to capitalize on their inventions partially because they never focused on process simplification. “They snatched defeat from the jaws of victory because they liked complexity more than they liked simplicity,” the authors explain.Process-simplification and the monetization of these technological innovations were left to the late, great Steve Jobs. He brought Apple back to profitability by focusing on just two models of the Mac and producing the easiest-to-use, most fun personal computer on the market.Then came the iPod, another extraordinary example of proposition-simplification. Existing MP3 players were “horrible, absolutely horrible.” They were difficult to use and held about sixteen songs. Jobs and the team devised a far simpler player that had a drive that would hold a thousand songs, with a FireWire connection to sync the thousand songs in under ten minutes, and a battery that would last through a thousand songs.Apple is a prime example of a proposition-simplifier.What tactics your context requires to use the principle of simplification, will be completely unique. The value of this book is the awareness of the power of simplification, and the guidance it offers to the process: the rest is up to you.Readability Light -+-- SeriousInsights High --+-- LowPractical High +---- Low*Ian Mann of Gateways consults internationally on leadership and strategy and is the author of the soon to be released ‘Executive Update’.

An outstanding overview of critical thinking. A (relatively) short read but it does get the brain cells cranked up. You can't just breeze through it; you have to think and that's what makes it great.

a marvelous read. It teaches, informs, and along the way, is quite entertaining. For me, it is explaining what I have been trying to explain for years.

For anyone about to start University this is a must have primer. Levitin writes in such an easy going way that you can see him smiling as he provides examples to explain hard ideas in a simple, clear manner. If you find stats and research methods confusing or daunting this is for you. At the same time, as consumer of information everyone of us should be acquainted with the ideas and insights Levitin provides. We would be less likely to fall for the poor analysis and down-right nonsense that characterizes so much of the information we consume today. Who knows... if we up our game, maybe journalists/pundits/bloggers will be forced to up theirs!

As well as a good corrections of bias and prejudice it manages to slip in a lot of propaganda for official truths. If you want to feel you're on the winning side with state and corporate funded "experts". And if to you the label conspiracy theorist brings feelings of unbearable shame, look no further to find ammunition to join the ones who are writing history!

The author gives an almost comprehensive guide on how to spot unprofessional or inconsistent reporting in journalism and science: from the experimental setup, to data collection, reporting, visualizing and interpreting results, the flaws can be very subtle and not that straightforward to spot. Every chapter is full of examples, making the whole read extremely easy to digest. The only flaw of the book in my opinion is that the representation is not necessarily systematic: you need to go back after finishing each part of the book and reorganize your thoughts.

The book itself is a good read, especially for those who hold a curious mind towards numbers and mathematics!For experienced marketers or statisticians, the book it obviously too easy. For general beings, it's quite a good guide to building up fundamental knowledges of statistics.

It was a great book to discover all the little details that surround statistics and pools.I don't have much to say about the book other than it is a must for people who work or intend to work with research and marketing.

This is an excellent book for learning how to discern when someone or an organization is lying to you. The focus is on thinking critically about what you hear and see. Even though I believe that I think critically about issues, there are times when I know I don't. I liked how the author shows the reader how to develop different scenarios to "account for events". The Field Guide to Lies is an excellent source of techniques and sources to rebuild one's critical thinking skills. The author uses wit and humour to help get his points across. I seldom reread a book; this one I will!